AI predicts FIFA World Cup 2018 Winners using 1 million simulation results

Author : admin

Goldman Sachs a group of researchers used AI and machine learning by simulating 1 million possible world cup outcomes to predict that Spain and Germany are the most likely winners of the FIFA World Cup 2018, Russia.  

Predicting a highly unpredictable sports like Football is a fun!

Predicting something is curious especially when it comes to our favorite sports, this is not the first time we predicting FIFA world cup final winners.

During the 2010 World Cup, a psychic octopus named Paul picked the right team in 12 out of 14 games where it was asked to predict the winner, including the final. After eight years, for the 2018 World Cup in Russia, we have a more scientific method to predict the future. Let's find out more interesting predictions in this article.

PC: Pixabay

Some key highlights of the prediction:

  • Goldman sees Saudi Arabia as the surprising team that will advance out of the group stage, ahead of the host nation
  • Russia isn't expected to make it out of the group stage at all, despite its role as tournament host
  • Spain and Argentina are forecast to underperform, both losing in the quarter-finals
  • England is expected to make it to the quarter-final stage, where Goldman says they'll lose to Germany
  • While France has better overall odds of lifting the trophy, it's expected meeting with Brazil in the semi-finals has it falling short of the title match
  • Brazil is expected to win its sixth World Cup title, defeating Germany in the final by an unrounded score of 1.70 to 1.41

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This prediction is not taken just like that. there is 100,000 times soccer tournament are simulated using Artificial Intelligence(AI) then calculated the each team's probabilities to pass to next stage of the group leagues, and then moved to each team toward the final. the below table depicts the each team's maturity in the group stage.

Taking these factors into account, the researcher’s AI simulated the soccer tournament 100,000 times, calculating each team’s probabilities to pass to advance past the group stage, and then pass each following round all the way up to the final. The table below shows each team’s odds in the group stage.

PC: Goldman Sachs

According to Goldman Sachs, this year’s most surprising team will be Saudi Arabia who will advance over the host nation. But having established all this, Football remains a highly unpredictable sport, the knockout stages of Champions League this year being the best example. So, although all the predictions are bound to be forgotten once the ball kicks off on Thursday, Brazil are the champions and that’s our prediction.

PC: Reuters

According to these simulations, Spain is the most likely winner, followed by Germany and Brazil. These all are just predictions only, it won't decide the teams potential and willpower at any point of the match. so, we need wait till July 15 to find out the champions of the FIFA world cup 2018.


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